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Could Simone Biles Become the Women's Kohei Uchimura?

Today, Kohei Uchimura  of Japan took home his fifth consecutive world all-around title. An impressive feat.

He won with an admirable 1.492 points over Great Britain's Max Whitlock.  They don't call him King Kohei for nothing, he's in the Guinness Book of World Records for goodness sake. He dominated the 09-12 quad and it's looking like he'll dominate the 13-16 quad.

That's Queen Simone to you!
Tomorrow, Simone Biles of the USA will contend for her second all-around title.  If she does so, she will be the first US woman since Shannon Miller in 1993 and 1994.On Sunday, Simone took the top spot in qualification with 59.599, following her was Russia's Aliya Mustafina with a 58.874 and Romania's Larisa Iordache with a 58.365.

She became a repeat national champion back in August, and she and team USA have already scored their  second consecutive world title and their first title of the new quad.  Could she be women's gymnastics version of Kohei?

Numbers wise, she beat Aliya in qualifications by 0.725, not as high a lead as Kohei, but this was qualifications and she did have a minor snafu on bars, which is her weak event. The difference between her and Larisa Iordache is 1.234 points.

Simone's average D score is a 6.225, which coincidentally is exactly the same as it was at last year's worlds. She has the highest advantage over her competitors on vault and floor. Aliya and Larisa both perform a DTY which has a 5.8 start value, which gives Simone a whole 0.5 over them.  She has a full 0.5 in start value on floor over Aliya and 0.30 over Larisa. I've plotted this all on a fun chart. As you can see, Aliya has a small advantage in that her average execution score is 0.044 higher than Simone's. Although, Simone had that snafu on bars which lowers her overall E-score. Bars is Aliya's best event whereas, it's Simone's worst. Doesn't say much, since she still has a bar routine that made the event finals last year.  Also interesting is that Simone has the exact same D score she did last year.

Simone D ScoresAverage D ScoreTotal ScoreTotal E-ScoresAverage E Score
Aliya D Scores
Larisa D Scores

So can Simone pull off a repeat performance and become this generation's Shannon Miller? It certainly seems likely. If Simone performs exactly as she did in qualifications (and her competitors do the same) she'll win again. Aliya will most likely be the biggest challenger for Simone since she often performs better in the final rounds than she does in qualifications.


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